Cases of flu virus in Ontario and Toronto at five-year low
February 21, 2012
Jennifer Pagliaro
STAFF REPORTER
After riding the wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, Ontario residents appear to have avoided the seasonal onslaught of coughing and sneezing — so far.
The number of laboratory-confirmed cases of the flu by the end of January was the lowest it’s been in the past five years, according to data from the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care.
In Toronto there were only 64 confirmed cases of influenza since September. Sixteen were part of an institutional outbreak in the last week of January. At the same point last year, Toronto had already seen 1,106 confirmed cases of the flu.
In York, Peel and Durham regions, there were 55 confirmed cases of influenza total compared to 97 last year.
Across the province 191 confirmed cases of the flu were reported, compared to 3,059 at this point last year.
“So far we’ve had a very unremarkable flu season,” said Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Arlene King.
When you’re talking about the flu, unremarkable is a good thing.
Not only are the numbers low, but King said the virus strains we are currently seeing are the ones planned for, including the H1N1 pandemic strain.
She said the season low thus far can be attributed to a combination of environmental and host (that’s us) factors.
“A combination of immunization and immunity related to illness may have resulted in very, very high levels of immunity in our population to begin with,” she said.
Our immunity may be especially high this year, after the 2009 outbreak of the H1N1 strain saw high levels of both infection and vaccination.
Experts say the current vaccine is extremely effective, making it the best defence we have.
King said the uptake for vaccinations across Ontario happened quicker than predicted this year. After ordering 3.9 million doses, another 400,000 were ordered to keep up with demand, she said.
And since the virus survives better in cold, dry temperatures, Toronto’s mild weather may also be a factor, King said.
“The environment influences how people behave as well, so they may be less cloistered up together for prolonged periods of time, encouraging transmission between people,” she said.
But experts were quick to warn that the number of cases hasn’t peaked for this flu season and still could in February or in March.
Toronto’s associate medical officer of health Dr. Irene Armstrong said it’s hard to know what causes the change in outbreaks from season to season.
“A lot of what we know about influenza is just based on observation,” she said.
But overall, the numbers recorded could be much lower than the actual number of people with the flu, since many stay home and never get tested, Armstrong said.
In Toronto, 31,257 people were immunized at 46 Toronto Public Health community clinics, falling into the average of 30,000 to 35,000 people immunized at TPH clinics each year.
“We do know that influenza is inevitable,” King said. “We encourage everyone to get a flu shot every year.”
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