In a lot of eyes, the grave is as good as dug. With Toronto down 3-1 in its best-of-seven series with the Bruins, in the wake of the lifeless effort put forth in the bulk of Saturday’s 3-1 home loss, it only makes sense to get the dirt poised on hovering shovels.
The burying of another Maple Leafs season seems imminent, so long as the Shanaplan-era graveyard still has space.
For all that, anyone who’d be surprised by a Leafs resurgence beginning in Tuesday’s Game 5 at TD Garden would be ignoring a handful of relevant historical precedents.
For one: The Bruins turned a 3-1 series lead into first-round elimination a year ago.
For another: In two of their three most recent meetings with the Bruins, in 2013 and 2018, the Leafs rallied from 3-1 deficits to force Game 7. That’s not to say they’re going to win or lose, only that it wouldn’t be the first time they’ve played their best after they’ve been pronounced goners. It’d be against the odds, but let’s not forget the Leafs have reeled off a three-game playoff winning streak in two of their previous three trips to the Stanley Cup tournament.
Beyond that, there’s always something to be said about getting on the road. The Leafs, booed out of their own building Saturday, are a shockingly grim 9-19 in the playoffs at Scotiabank Arena going back to 2017. They’re a far more respectable 11-8 away from the place during head coach Sheldon Keefe’s tenure. Last spring, the Leafs went 4-1 on the road in the playoffs. The last time they were in Boston, for Game 2, they won.
At least, those were some of the things the Leafs were telling themselves as they reconvened for a “recovery” Sunday at their Etobicoke practice rink.
“This series and these games that we’ve been in, they’re far closer than it may appear,” Keefe said. “And we need little things to shift over in our favour … It’s just one less mistake and one more positive puck going the other way.”
In some ways that’s true of most playoff hockey games. A different bounce here, a more favourable whistle there, and the complexion changes.
But let’s not sugar-coat it: There are some rather big factors going against the Leafs. Boston’s goaltending has been far superior. And Toronto’s special teams — a power play seemingly out of ideas, and a penalty kill that’s allowed six goals in four games — are only repeating a pattern of previous playoff underachievement.
Beyond that, a team struggling to score is waiting for its top goal scorer to recover from an illness that was bad enough to keep him out of the third period of Game 4.
“For whatever reason, it’s not one of those run-of-the-mill, everyday type of illnesses that sort of come and go,” Keefe said of what’s ailing Auston Matthews. “This one has lingered, and the effects have lingered and gotten worse when he’s getting on the ice and asserting himself.”
Oh, and it’s also possible Toronto’s top-paid players, who’ve always partaken in a game of off-ice one-upmanship when it comes to grabbing the maximum piece of the team’s salary cap, are growing sick of each other eight seasons into a team-building project that has yet to live up to its potential. Mind you, Keefe spun the discord on the Game 4 bench among Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander not as a harbinger of a breakup, but as a communication breakthrough.
“In the past, quite honestly, that wouldn’t have happened. Guys wouldn’t have talked it out, wouldn’t have — if you want to call it — argued it out,” Keefe said. “That wouldn’t have happened. That is progress, and those guys care.”
It’s possible the coach is delusional. And it’s possible some of his delusions are statistical. On one hand, the eye test says the Bruins play a superior brand of the post-season sport, expertly limiting their mistakes while rarely failing to capitalize when opponents make them. On the other hand, according to the Gospel of Expected Goals, a faith-based approach to the game, the Leafs ought to be winning the series. In three of the four games, the Leafs have racked up more scoring chances. They’ve controlled 60 per cent of the high-danger chances. And they’ve won the battle of expected goals at five-on-five.
According to those analytics, the Leafs are doing things right. Trust the process.
“Our team’s in a good spot. We feel like we’re playing hard. We’re getting our chances,” defenceman Morgan Rielly said after Game 4. “It’s just not going in the net. There’s areas to clean up.”
As much as Rielly, the longest serving Leaf, appeared to have bought into that line of thinking, Keefe acknowledged there might need to be some salesmanship required amid the understandable doomsaying.
Said the coach: “There’s reasons for optimism there, and we’re just trying to make sure the players are aware of that.”
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